Liberals’ post-Campbell goal of renewal hangs in the balance

Liberal leadership candidate George Abbott – who calls himself “the honest guy who gets things done” – was brutally frank with supporters in Campbell River Sunday morning.

If the party fails to endorse new weighted vote provisions when it holds its extraordinary constitutional amendment convention on Feb. 12^th, Abbott said his chances of becoming leader and premier are “slim.” He could have said “slim and none.”

He also said the party’s chances in the next election will be equally slim.

Abbott, who legitimately claims to be running second in the race behind Christy Clark, was responding to a question from his audience about Mike Smyth’s column in the Province on Sunday.

Writing about the weighted vote that gives sparsely populated rural ridings the same voting power as densely populated urban ridings, Smyth wrote:  “The big secret is how many of the leadership candidates are privately praying this new voting system falls apart and disappears -- and how many of the delegates to a special convention to decide the question are secretly plotting to ensure that's exactly what happens.”

Smyth went on to explain why: “Because front-running candidates Christy Clark, Kevin Falcon and Mike de Jong have signed up a tonne of new members in the Lower Mainland -- many from the South Asian community. The proposed regional system would dilute and weaken that heavily concentrated base of support.”

Under the proposed regionally weighted system, every riding is worth 100 points in the leadership vote. Leadership candidates will compete for those 100 points in every riding regardless of how many Liberals members have been signed up.

Abbott told the meeting: “It is hugely important that the weighted vote provision be adopted because it moves the authority to elect a new leader to each constituency.”

He also stated that “16,000 to 17,000 new members have been signed up in a small number of ridings on the Lower Mainland and I have a minute share of those votes.”

If the provision fails, Abbott said, three or four urban ridings will determine the outcome of the leadership race and if that happens ... “I’ll be blunt, my chances of success are slim.”

He also said such an outcome will result in “no end of trouble” for the Liberals. “We won’t be able to pretend rural ridings have a voice. If we can’t rebuild a connection with the grassroots, we will lose the next election.”

When he and I were chatting he said failure of the provision would mean “World War 3.”

While none of Abbott’s challengers have declared opposition to the weighted system, a key organizer in de Jong’s camp has come clean. Smyth reported that former Liberal cabinet minister Gulzar Cheema, who supports de Jong, is a delegate to the Feb. 12 convention and will vote against the provision.

"Why should some votes be worth less simply because of where you live?" he told the Province columnist. "Why should some constituencies and communities be punished simply because they are more politically active?"

Back on Dec. 17^th I reported on an internal campaign memo crafted by Falcon’s deputy campaign manager Kareem Allam. It was essentially a check list as the Falcon forces prepared to dominate each delegate selection meeting in BC’s 85 Liberal riding associations ahead of the Feb. 12^th vote.

Allam wanted his team members to orchestrate the outcome of each delegate selection meeting by going in with a printed list of 20 Falcon supporters. “Remember,” he said, “delegates do not have to be residents of your riding. If you want to include party members in good standing who are not from your actual riding, you can nominate them as part of your list of 20.”

Allam added: “This rule allows for the potential of delegate hijacking (it actually makes it easier), a risk that will be greatest in those ridings with low members and/or low engagement.”

Put this altogether with Abbott’s concerns and with Smyth’s revelations and you can make a case that the party’s post-Campbell goal of renewal and inclusiveness is hanging by a thread.